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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Las Vegas Raiders 4th & 9 at the 25

Las Vegas Raiders 20 – Jacksonville Jaguars 9

What Actually Happened

(2:31) 11-S.Janikowski 44 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-59-J.Condo, Holder-7-M.King.

The Three Options

GO +0.69 EP
  • 31% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 16, worth +4.81 EP
  • 69% chance to fail: Jacksonville Jaguars takes over around their own 25, worth -1.18 EP
KICK +1.18 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 83% chance to make a 42-yard field goal: 3 points, then Jacksonville Jaguars takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +1.82 EP
  • 17% chance to miss: Jacksonville Jaguars takes over around their own 35, worth -2.00 EP
PUNT -0.22 EP
  • Jacksonville Jaguars would take over around their own 11, worth -0.22 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model