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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Las Vegas Raiders 4th & 5 at the 7

Las Vegas Raiders 0 – Jacksonville Jaguars 0

What Actually Happened

(9:08) 11-S.Janikowski 26 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-59-J.Condo, Holder-7-M.King.

The Three Options

GO +2.24 EP
Model's Pick
  • 38% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 2, worth +6.21 EP
  • 62% chance to fail: Jacksonville Jaguars takes over around their own 7, worth -0.20 EP
KICK +1.57 EP
What Happened
  • 97% chance to make a 24-yard field goal: 3 points, then Jacksonville Jaguars takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +1.65 EP
  • 3% chance to miss: Jacksonville Jaguars takes over around their own 21, worth -1.03 EP
PUNT -0.36 EP
  • Jacksonville Jaguars would take over around their own 11, worth -0.36 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.66 EP