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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Las Vegas Raiders 4th & 5 at the 53

Las Vegas Raiders 3 – Jacksonville Jaguars 0

What Actually Happened

(:17) 7-M.King punts 40 yards to JAX 13, Center-59-J.Condo. 13-R.Greene MUFFS catch, RECOVERED by LV-18-A.Holmes at JAX 17. 18-A.Holmes to JAX 17 for no gain (47-J.Wilson).

The Three Options

GO -0.48 EP
Model's Pick
  • 44% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 48, worth +2.67 EP
  • 56% chance to fail: Jacksonville Jaguars takes over around their own 53, worth -2.95 EP
KICK -1.83 EP
  • 20% chance to make a 70-yard field goal: 3 points, then Jacksonville Jaguars takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +1.98 EP
  • 80% chance to miss: Jacksonville Jaguars takes over around their own 49, worth -2.78 EP
PUNT -0.50 EP
What Happened
  • Jacksonville Jaguars would take over around their own 15, worth -0.50 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model