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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Atlanta Falcons 4th & 4 at the 69

Atlanta Falcons 27 – Los Angeles Chargers 17

What Actually Happened

(13:23) 5-M.Bosher punts 58 yards to LAC 11, Center-47-J.Harris, fair catch by 33-D.McCluster.

The Three Options

GO -0.86 EP
Model's Pick
  • 52% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 65, worth +1.96 EP
  • 48% chance to fail: Los Angeles Chargers takes over around their own 69, worth -3.89 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (86 yards).

PUNT -1.03 EP
What Happened
  • Los Angeles Chargers would take over around their own 27, worth -1.03 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model