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San Diego Chargers

HC Mike McCoy
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ATL Home

Atlanta Falcons

HC Dan Quinn
Sunday 2016-10-23 · 16:05 Georgia Dome, Atlanta US 🏟 Dome Spread 4.5 O/U 52.5

Win Probability

SD
40.1%
ATL
59.9%
🏟 Dome

Confidence: <strong>slight edge</strong> Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Key Insights

  • ATL offense: +0.193 EPA/play over its last 8 games (1st in the league)
  • ATL defense: +0.107 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (30th in the league)
  • QB edge to ATL: Matt Ryan (ATL) +0.231 vs Philip Rivers (LAC) +0.146 EPA/dropback
  • Indoors — weather neutralised
  • LAC defense: -0.079 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (8th in the league)
  • LAC on 3 more days rest than ATL

Predicted Final Score

SD 25
–
ATL 28
Projected margin: ATL by 3 Projected total: 53

Typical error on unseen games: ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat this as a range, not a prediction to the point — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Injury Report — Week 7

SD

Jeremiah Attaochu LB Out Ankle
Jahleel Addae S Out Collarbone
Brandon Flowers CB Out Concussion
Travis Benjamin WR Questionable Knee

ATL

Taylor Gabriel WR Out Concussion
C.J. Goodwin CB Out Hamstring

Pulled fresh for 2016 week 7 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.

Actual Result

SD 33
–
ATL 30

Prediction missed by 6 pts on margin, 10 pts on total.

Scoring Summary

  • Q1 10:59 TD LAC (10:59) (Shotgun) 28-M.Gordon left end for 2 yards, TOUCHDOWN. SD 6 – ATL 0
  • Q1 06:31 FG ATL (6:31) 3-M.Bryant 42 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-J.Harris, Holder-5-M.Bosher. SD 7 – ATL 3
  • Q1 02:38 FG ATL (2:38) 3-M.Bryant 27 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-J.Harris, Holder-5-M.Bosher. SD 7 – ATL 6
  • Q2 13:34 FG LAC (13:34) 2-J.Lambo 40 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-M.Windt, Holder-10-K.Clemens. SD 10 – ATL 6
  • Q2 09:12 TD ATL (9:12) (Shotgun) 2-M.Ryan pass deep middle to 83-J.Tamme for 17 yards, TOUCHDOWN. SD 10 – ATL 12
  • Q2 06:15 TD ATL (6:15) 26-T.Coleman right tackle for 30 yards, TOUCHDOWN. SD 10 – ATL 19
  • Q2 04:41 TD ATL (4:41) (Shotgun) 17-P.Rivers sacked at LAC 8 for -9 yards (44-V.Beasley). FUMBLES (44-V.Beasley) [44-V.Beasley], touched at LAC 10, RECOVERED by ATL-99-A.Clayborn at LAC 5. 99-A.Clayborn for 5 yards, TOUCHDOWN. The Replay Official reviewed the runner was not down by contact ruling, and the play was Upheld. The ruling on the field stands. SD 10 – ATL 26
  • Q2 01:06 TD LAC (1:06) 28-M.Gordon left guard for 3 yards, TOUCHDOWN. SD 16 – ATL 27
  • Q3 04:54 FG LAC (4:54) 2-J.Lambo 37 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-M.Windt, Holder-10-K.Clemens. SD 20 – ATL 27
  • Q4 13:28 FG ATL (13:28) 3-M.Bryant 31 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-J.Harris, Holder-5-M.Bosher. SD 20 – ATL 30
  • Q4 06:03 TD LAC (6:03) (Shotgun) 17-P.Rivers pass short left to 28-M.Gordon for 5 yards, TOUCHDOWN. SD 26 – ATL 30
  • Q4 00:22 FG LAC (:22) 2-J.Lambo 33 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-M.Windt, Holder-10-K.Clemens. SD 30 – ATL 30
  • Q5 09:06 FG LAC (9:06) 2-J.Lambo 42 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-M.Windt, Holder-10-K.Clemens. SD 33 – ATL 30

Fourth-Down Decisions

  • Q1 ATL 4th & 5 at the 24
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 42% p(FG) 86%

    (6:31) 3-M.Bryant 42 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-J.Harris, Holder-5-M.Bosher.

  • Q1 ATL 4th & 9 at the 9
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 31% p(FG) 97%

    (2:38) 3-M.Bryant 27 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-J.Harris, Holder-5-M.Bosher.

  • Q2 LAC 4th & 7 at the 22
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 35% p(FG) 88%

    (13:34) 2-J.Lambo 40 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-M.Windt, Holder-10-K.Clemens.

  • Q2 LAC 4th & 11 at the 93
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 37%

    (8:05) 8-D.Kaser punts 43 yards to 50, Center-47-M.Windt, fair catch by 14-E.Weems.

  • Q3 ATL 4th & 4 at the 69
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 52%

    (13:23) 5-M.Bosher punts 58 yards to LAC 11, Center-47-J.Harris, fair catch by 33-D.McCluster.

  • Q3 LAC 4th & 3 at the 82
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.52 EP
    p(convert) 57%

    (12:21) (Punt formation) 8-D.Kaser punts 48 yards to ATL 34, Center-47-M.Windt. 14-E.Weems to ATL 43 for 9 yards (58-To.Williams; 53-J.Perry). PENALTY on ATL-16-J.Hardy, Offensive Holding, 10 yards, enforced at ATL 34.

  • Q3 ATL 4th & 17 at the 59
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 28%

    (8:15) 5-M.Bosher punts 43 yards to LAC 16, Center-47-J.Harris, downed by ATL. PENALTY on ATL-27-R.Therezie, Interference with Opportunity to Catch, 15 yards, enforced at LAC 16.

  • Q3 LAC 4th & 2 at the 19
    Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.79 EP
    p(convert) 56% p(FG) 91%

    (4:54) 2-J.Lambo 37 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-M.Windt, Holder-10-K.Clemens.

  • Q4 ATL 4th & 12 at the 13
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 28% p(FG) 95%

    (13:28) 3-M.Bryant 31 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-J.Harris, Holder-5-M.Bosher.

  • Q4 LAC 4th & 2 at the 57 late-game
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 61%

    (2:00) (Shotgun) 17-P.Rivers pass short middle to 85-A.Gates to LAC 46 for 3 yards (45-D.Jones).

  • Q4 LAC 4th & 10 at the 15 late-game
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 29% p(FG) 94%

    (:22) 2-J.Lambo 33 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-M.Windt, Holder-10-K.Clemens.