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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Los Angeles Chargers 4th & 2 at the 19

Los Angeles Chargers 17 – Atlanta Falcons 27

What Actually Happened

(4:54) 2-J.Lambo 37 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-M.Windt, Holder-10-K.Clemens.

The Three Options

GO +2.33 EP
Model's Pick
  • 56% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 17, worth +4.88 EP
  • 44% chance to fail: Atlanta Falcons takes over around their own 19, worth -0.86 EP
KICK +1.54 EP
What Happened
  • 91% chance to make a 36-yard field goal: 3 points, then Atlanta Falcons takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +1.83 EP
  • 9% chance to miss: Atlanta Falcons takes over around their own 29, worth -1.47 EP
PUNT -0.21 EP
  • Atlanta Falcons would take over around their own 11, worth -0.21 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.79 EP