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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Atlanta Falcons 4th & 12 at the 13

Atlanta Falcons 27 – Los Angeles Chargers 20

What Actually Happened

(13:28) 3-M.Bryant 31 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-J.Harris, Holder-5-M.Bosher.

The Three Options

GO +1.63 EP
  • 28% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 1, worth +6.37 EP
  • 72% chance to fail: Los Angeles Chargers takes over around their own 13, worth -0.17 EP
KICK +1.97 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 95% chance to make a 30-yard field goal: 3 points, then Los Angeles Chargers takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +2.11 EP
  • 5% chance to miss: Los Angeles Chargers takes over around their own 23, worth -0.79 EP
PUNT +0.01 EP
  • Los Angeles Chargers would take over around their own 11, worth +0.01 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model