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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Los Angeles Chargers 4th & 2 at the 57

Los Angeles Chargers 27 – Atlanta Falcons 30

What Actually Happened

(2:00) (Shotgun) 17-P.Rivers pass short middle to 85-A.Gates to LAC 46 for 3 yards (45-D.Jones).

The Three Options

GO +0.12 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 61% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 55, worth +1.63 EP
  • 39% chance to fail: Atlanta Falcons takes over around their own 57, worth -2.19 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (74 yards).

PUNT -0.71 EP
  • Atlanta Falcons would take over around their own 17, worth -0.71 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model