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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Los Angeles Chargers 4th & 10 at the 15

Los Angeles Chargers 27 – Atlanta Falcons 30

What Actually Happened

(:22) 2-J.Lambo 33 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-M.Windt, Holder-10-K.Clemens.

The Three Options

GO +1.28 EP
  • 29% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 5, worth +4.49 EP
  • 71% chance to fail: Atlanta Falcons takes over around their own 15, worth -0.05 EP
KICK +2.69 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 94% chance to make a 32-yard field goal: 3 points, then Atlanta Falcons takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +2.87 EP
  • 6% chance to miss: Atlanta Falcons takes over around their own 25, worth -0.13 EP
PUNT -0.02 EP
  • Atlanta Falcons would take over around their own 11, worth -0.02 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model