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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Atlanta Falcons 4th & 5 at the 24

Atlanta Falcons 0 – Los Angeles Chargers 7

What Actually Happened

(6:31) 3-M.Bryant 42 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-J.Harris, Holder-5-M.Bosher.

The Three Options

GO +1.88 EP
  • 42% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 19, worth +5.00 EP
  • 58% chance to fail: Los Angeles Chargers takes over around their own 24, worth -0.40 EP
KICK +2.00 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 86% chance to make a 41-yard field goal: 3 points, then Los Angeles Chargers takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +2.50 EP
  • 14% chance to miss: Los Angeles Chargers takes over around their own 34, worth -1.16 EP
PUNT +0.37 EP
  • Los Angeles Chargers would take over around their own 11, worth +0.37 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model