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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Tampa Bay Buccaneers 4th & 16 at the 20

Tampa Bay Buccaneers 7 – San Francisco 49ers 14

What Actually Happened

(5:04) 19-R.Aguayo 38 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-48-A.DePaola, Holder-9-B.Anger.

The Three Options

GO +0.56 EP
  • 22% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 4, worth +5.72 EP
  • 78% chance to fail: San Francisco 49ers takes over around their own 20, worth -0.89 EP
KICK +1.41 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 90% chance to make a 37-yard field goal: 3 points, then San Francisco 49ers takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +1.76 EP
  • 10% chance to miss: San Francisco 49ers takes over around their own 30, worth -1.65 EP
PUNT -0.47 EP
  • San Francisco 49ers would take over around their own 11, worth -0.47 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model