Win Probability
Confidence: coin flip Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the full track record.
Key Insights
- SF defense: +0.030 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (19th in the league)
- Colin Kaepernick (SF): -0.099 EPA/dropback in prior starts
- SF offense: -0.107 EPA/play over its last 8 games (31st in the league)
- TB offense: -0.067 EPA/play over its last 8 games (22nd in the league)
- TB on 6 more days rest than SF
- TB defense: +0.086 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (29th in the league)
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Predicted Final Score
The range under each score is this model's typical error on unseen games — ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat the bigger number as the middle of that range, not a precise call — see the full track record.
Injury Report — Week 7
TB
SF
Pulled fresh for 2016 week 7 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.
Actual Result
Prediction missed by 16 pts on margin, 6 pts on total.
Scoring Summary
- Q1 13:04 TD SF (13:04) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 22-M.Davis left guard for 4 yards, TOUCHDOWN. TB 0 – SF 6
- Q1 00:16 TD SF (:16) (Shotgun) 7-C.Kaepernick pass deep left to 24-S.Draughn for 17 yards, TOUCHDOWN. The Replay Official reviewed the pass completion ruling, and the play was Upheld. The ruling on the field stands. TB 0 – SF 13
- Q2 10:20 TD TB (10:20) (Shotgun) 3-J.Winston pass short left to 13-M.Evans for 4 yards, TOUCHDOWN. TB 6 – SF 14
- Q2 05:04 FG TB (5:04) 19-R.Aguayo 38 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-48-A.DePaola, Holder-9-B.Anger. TB 10 – SF 14
- Q2 00:53 TD TB (:53) (Shotgun) 3-J.Winston pass deep right to 89-R.Shepard for 19 yards, TOUCHDOWN. TB 16 – SF 14
- Q3 11:02 FG TB (11:02) 19-R.Aguayo 37 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-48-A.DePaola, Holder-9-B.Anger. TB 20 – SF 14
- Q3 06:30 TD TB (6:30) (Shotgun) 3-J.Winston pass short middle to 13-M.Evans for 5 yards, TOUCHDOWN [59-A.Lynch]. TB 26 – SF 14
- Q4 08:12 FG SF (8:12) 4-P.Dawson 28 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-86-K.Nelson, Holder-5-B.Pinion. TB 27 – SF 17
- Q4 04:51 TD TB (4:51) 78-G.Cherilus reported in as eligible. 43-P.Barber left guard for 44 yards, TOUCHDOWN. TB 33 – SF 17
Fourth-Down Decisions
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Q1 TB 4th & 1 at the 50Chose GO ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 68% p(FG) 26%
(9:08) 43-P.Barber left guard to 50 for no gain (92-Q.Dial). Officials to measure for the first down. No gain.
See the full breakdown → -
Q1 SF 4th & 7 at the 47Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 36% p(FG) 33%
(8:11) 5-B.Pinion punts 36 yards to TB 11, Center-86-K.Nelson, downed by SF-36-D.Johnson.
See the full breakdown → -
Q1 TB 4th & 2 at the 51Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.97 EPp(convert) 57% p(FG) 24%
(4:45) 9-B.Anger punts 38 yards to SF 13, Center-48-A.DePaola, fair catch by 17-J.Kerley.
See the full breakdown → -
Q1 SF 4th & 20 at the 66Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 24%
(1:21) 5-B.Pinion punts 43 yards to TB 23, Center-86-K.Nelson, fair catch by 11-A.Humphries.
See the full breakdown → -
Q2 TB 4th & 16 at the 20Chose KICK ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 22% p(FG) 90%
(5:04) 19-R.Aguayo 38 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-48-A.DePaola, Holder-9-B.Anger.
See the full breakdown → -
Q2 SF 4th & 3 at the 56Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.32 EPp(convert) 51%
(2:41) 5-B.Pinion punts 33 yards to TB 23, Center-86-K.Nelson, fair catch by 11-A.Humphries.
See the full breakdown → -
Q2 SF 4th & 6 at the 58Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 40%
(:22) 5-B.Pinion punts 57 yards to TB 1, Center-86-K.Nelson. 11-A.Humphries MUFFS catch, and recovers at TB 1. 11-A.Humphries to TB 16 for 15 yards (51-G.Hodges, 86-K.Nelson).
See the full breakdown → -
Q3 TB 4th & 11 at the 76Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 33%
(13:10) 9-B.Anger punts 42 yards to SF 34, Center-48-A.DePaola. 13-A.Burbridge MUFFS catch, RECOVERED by TB-37-K.Tandy at SF 36. 37-K.Tandy to SF 36 for no gain (38-J.Shepherd). 2-yds of loose ball yardage.
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Q3 TB 4th & 4 at the 19Chose KICK ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 42% p(FG) 91%
(11:02) 19-R.Aguayo 37 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-48-A.DePaola, Holder-9-B.Anger.
See the full breakdown → -
Q3 SF 4th & 10 at the 62Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 32%
(4:11) 5-B.Pinion punts 45 yards to TB 17, Center-86-K.Nelson, fair catch by 11-A.Humphries. PENALTY on TB-43-P.Barber, Offensive Holding, 8 yards, enforced at TB 17.
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Q4 TB 4th & 3 at the 32Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.46 EPp(convert) 48% p(FG) 71%
(14:17) 19-R.Aguayo 50 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Right, Center-48-A.DePaola, Holder-9-B.Anger.
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Q4 SF 4th & 3 at the 42Chose GO ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 50% p(FG) 46%
(11:04) (Shotgun) 7-C.Kaepernick scrambles right end pushed ob at TB 34 for 8 yards (38-J.Adjei-Barimah).
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Q4 SF 4th & 10 at the 10Chose KICK ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 27% p(FG) 96%
(8:12) 4-P.Dawson 28 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-86-K.Nelson, Holder-5-B.Pinion.
See the full breakdown → -
Q4 SF 4th & 14 at the 68 late-gameChose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 28%
(2:58) 5-B.Pinion punts 40 yards to TB 28, Center-86-K.Nelson. 11-A.Humphries MUFFS catch, and recovers at TB 30. 11-A.Humphries to TB 30 for no gain (36-D.Johnson).
See the full breakdown → -
Q4 TB 4th & 5 at the 53 late-gameChose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 42% p(FG) 21%
(1:18) 9-B.Anger punts 37 yards to SF 16, Center-48-A.DePaola, fair catch by 17-J.Kerley.
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