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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 San Francisco 49ers 4th & 6 at the 58

San Francisco 49ers 14 – Tampa Bay Buccaneers 17

What Actually Happened

(:22) 5-B.Pinion punts 57 yards to TB 1, Center-86-K.Nelson. 11-A.Humphries MUFFS catch, and recovers at TB 1. 11-A.Humphries to TB 16 for 15 yards (51-G.Hodges, 86-K.Nelson).

The Three Options

GO -0.45 EP
  • 40% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 52, worth +1.53 EP
  • 60% chance to fail: Tampa Bay Buccaneers takes over around their own 58, worth -1.76 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (75 yards).

PUNT -0.13 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Tampa Bay Buccaneers would take over around their own 18, worth -0.13 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model