Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Tampa Bay Buccaneers 4th & 11 at the 76

Tampa Bay Buccaneers 17 – San Francisco 49ers 14

What Actually Happened

(13:10) 9-B.Anger punts 42 yards to SF 34, Center-48-A.DePaola. 13-A.Burbridge MUFFS catch, RECOVERED by TB-37-K.Tandy at SF 36. 37-K.Tandy to SF 36 for no gain (38-J.Shepherd). 2-yds of loose ball yardage.

The Three Options

GO -2.47 EP

33% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 65, worth +1.64 EP
67% chance to fail: San Francisco 49ers takes over around their own 76, worth -4.48 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (93 yards).

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model