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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Tampa Bay Buccaneers 4th & 3 at the 32

Tampa Bay Buccaneers 27 – San Francisco 49ers 14

What Actually Happened

(14:17) 19-R.Aguayo 50 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Right, Center-48-A.DePaola, Holder-9-B.Anger.

The Three Options

GO +1.16 EP
Model's Pick
  • 48% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 29, worth +4.02 EP
  • 52% chance to fail: San Francisco 49ers takes over around their own 32, worth -1.50 EP
KICK +0.70 EP
What Happened
  • 71% chance to make a 49-yard field goal: 3 points, then San Francisco 49ers takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +1.89 EP
  • 29% chance to miss: San Francisco 49ers takes over around their own 42, worth -2.19 EP
PUNT -0.12 EP
  • San Francisco 49ers would take over around their own 11, worth -0.12 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.46 EP