4TH&DATA
EN ES
Back to Game

Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Tampa Bay Buccaneers 4th & 1 at the 50

Tampa Bay Buccaneers 0 – San Francisco 49ers 7

What Actually Happened

(9:08) 43-P.Barber left guard to 50 for no gain (92-Q.Dial). Officials to measure for the first down. No gain.

The Three Options

GO +0.73 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 68% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 49, worth +2.50 EP
  • 32% chance to fail: San Francisco 49ers takes over around their own 50, worth -3.08 EP
KICK -1.83 EP
  • 26% chance to make a 67-yard field goal: 3 points, then San Francisco 49ers takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +1.65 EP
  • 74% chance to miss: San Francisco 49ers takes over around their own 49, worth -3.08 EP
PUNT -0.78 EP
  • San Francisco 49ers would take over around their own 14, worth -0.78 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model