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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 San Francisco 49ers 4th & 14 at the 68

San Francisco 49ers 17 – Tampa Bay Buccaneers 34

What Actually Happened

(2:58) 5-B.Pinion punts 40 yards to TB 28, Center-86-K.Nelson. 11-A.Humphries MUFFS catch, and recovers at TB 30. 11-A.Humphries to TB 30 for no gain (36-D.Johnson).

The Three Options

GO -1.76 EP
  • 28% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 54, worth +1.68 EP
  • 72% chance to fail: Tampa Bay Buccaneers takes over around their own 68, worth -3.12 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (85 yards).

PUNT -0.88 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Tampa Bay Buccaneers would take over around their own 26, worth -0.88 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model