Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 San Francisco 49ers 4th & 20 at the 66

San Francisco 49ers 7 – Tampa Bay Buccaneers 0

(1:21) 5-B.Pinion punts 43 yards to TB 23, Center-86-K.Nelson, fair catch by 11-A.Humphries.

The Three Options

GO -1.90 EP

24% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 46, worth +3.15 EP
76% chance to fail: Tampa Bay Buccaneers takes over around their own 66, worth -3.45 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (83 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model