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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Arizona Cardinals 4th & 18 at the 94

Arizona Cardinals 0 – Carolina Panthers 21

What Actually Happened

(9:24) 9-R.Quigley punts 54 yards to CAR 40, Center-46-A.Brewer, fair catch by 19-T.Ginn.

The Three Options

GO -3.65 EP
  • 27% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 76, worth +1.32 EP
  • 73% chance to fail: Carolina Panthers takes over around their own 94, worth -5.48 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (111 yards).

PUNT -2.88 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Carolina Panthers would take over around their own 52, worth -2.88 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model