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ARI Away

Arizona Cardinals

HC Bruce Arians
@
CAR Home

Carolina Panthers

HC Ron Rivera
Sunday 2016-10-30 · 13:00 Bank of America Stadium, Charlotte US ☀️ Clear Spread 2.5 O/U 45.5

Win Probability

ARI
33.8%
CAR
66.2%
☀️ Clear

Confidence: <strong>clear edge</strong> Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Key Insights

  • ARI offense: -0.053 EPA/play over its last 8 games (19th in the league)
  • CAR on 7 more days rest than ARI
  • CAR defense: -0.067 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (7th in the league)
  • ARI defense: -0.119 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (3rd in the league)
  • Cam Newton (CAR): +0.106 EPA/dropback in prior starts

Predicted Final Score

ARI 20
–
CAR 25
Projected margin: CAR by 5 Projected total: 45

Typical error on unseen games: ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat this as a range, not a prediction to the point — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Injury Report — Week 8

ARI

Darren Fells TE Out Ankle
Alex Okafor LB Out Calf
Ed Stinson DT Out Toe
Tony Jefferson S Questionable Illness
John Brown WR Questionable Hamstring
Michael Floyd WR Questionable Hamstring
Jared Veldheer T Questionable Finger

CAR

Vernon Butler DT Out Ankle
Michael Oher T Out Concussion
Kony Ealy DE Questionable Illness
Paul Soliai DT Questionable Foot
Daryl Worley CB Questionable Concussion
James Bradberry CB Questionable Foot
Robert McClain CB Questionable Hamstring

Pulled fresh for 2016 week 8 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.

Actual Result

ARI 20
–
CAR 30

Prediction missed by 5 pts on margin, 5 pts on total.

Scoring Summary

  • Q1 12:01 TD CAR (12:01) (Shotgun) 3-C.Palmer sacked at ARI 35 for -8 yards (98-S.Lotulelei). FUMBLES (98-S.Lotulelei) [98-S.Lotulelei], RECOVERED by CAR-58-T.Davis at ARI 46. 58-T.Davis for 46 yards, TOUCHDOWN. ARI 0 – CAR 6
  • Q1 02:27 TD CAR (2:27) 28-J.Stewart right tackle for 2 yards, TOUCHDOWN. Chris Scott reports as an eligible reciever ARI 0 – CAR 13
  • Q2 11:10 TD CAR (11:10) 28-J.Stewart right tackle for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. Chris Scott reports as an eligible reciever ARI 0 – CAR 20
  • Q2 02:51 FG CAR (2:51) 9-G.Gano 43 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-44-J.Jansen, Holder-8-A.Lee. ARI 0 – CAR 24
  • Q2 00:26 TD ARI (:26) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 3-C.Palmer pass short left to 14-J.Nelson for 5 yards, TOUCHDOWN. ARI 6 – CAR 24
  • Q3 12:02 FG CAR (12:02) 9-G.Gano 52 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-44-J.Jansen, Holder-8-A.Lee. ARI 7 – CAR 27
  • Q3 07:22 FG CAR (7:22) 9-G.Gano 21 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-44-J.Jansen, Holder-8-A.Lee. ARI 7 – CAR 30
  • Q3 01:51 TD ARI (1:51) (Shotgun) 3-C.Palmer pass deep middle to 12-Jo.Brown for 17 yards, TOUCHDOWN. ARI 13 – CAR 30
  • Q4 05:05 TD ARI (5:05) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 3-C.Palmer pass short middle to 14-J.Nelson for 4 yards, TOUCHDOWN. ARI 20 – CAR 30

Fourth-Down Decisions

  • Q1 ARI 4th & 19 at the 84
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 25%

    (10:35) 9-R.Quigley punts 43 yards to CAR 41, Center-46-A.Brewer, fair catch by 19-T.Ginn.

  • Q1 ARI 4th & 11 at the 61
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 30%

    (6:26) 9-R.Quigley punts 36 yards to CAR 25, Center-46-A.Brewer, out of bounds.

  • Q2 ARI 4th & 20 at the 74
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 24%

    (14:53) 9-R.Quigley punts 39 yards to CAR 35, Center-46-A.Brewer. 19-T.Ginn ran ob at CAR 35 for no gain.

  • Q2 ARI 4th & 18 at the 94
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 27%

    (9:24) 9-R.Quigley punts 54 yards to CAR 40, Center-46-A.Brewer, fair catch by 19-T.Ginn.

  • Q2 CAR 4th & 1 at the 40
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 67% p(FG) 51%

    (6:14) 28-J.Stewart right tackle to ARI 36 for 4 yards (90-R.Nkemdiche; 93-C.Campbell). Chris Scott reports as an eligible reciever

  • Q2 CAR 4th & 10 at the 25
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 28% p(FG) 84%

    (2:51) 9-G.Gano 43 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-44-J.Jansen, Holder-8-A.Lee.

  • Q3 CAR 4th & 3 at the 34
    Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.52 EP
    p(convert) 48% p(FG) 66%

    (12:02) 9-G.Gano 52 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-44-J.Jansen, Holder-8-A.Lee.

  • Q3 ARI 4th & 18 at the 83
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 26%

    (10:30) 9-R.Quigley punts 40 yards to CAR 43, Center-46-A.Brewer, fair catch by 19-T.Ginn.

  • Q3 CAR 4th & 2 at the 2
    Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.33 EP
    p(convert) 51% p(FG) 98%

    (7:22) 9-G.Gano 21 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-44-J.Jansen, Holder-8-A.Lee.

  • Q3 CAR 4th & 6 at the 71
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 41%

    (:54) 8-A.Lee punts 41 yards to ARI 30, Center-44-J.Jansen, out of bounds.

  • Q4 CAR 4th & 11 at the 74
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 32%

    (10:04) 8-A.Lee punts 60 yards to ARI 14, Center-44-J.Jansen. 21-P.Peterson pushed ob at ARI 16 for 2 yards (56-A.Klein). PENALTY on ARI-26-B.Williams, Offensive Holding, 8 yards, enforced at ARI 16.

  • Q4 ARI 4th & 5 at the 36
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 39% p(FG) 61%

    (6:02) (Shotgun) 3-C.Palmer pass short left to 31-D.Johnson to CAR 15 for 21 yards (98-S.Lotulelei).

  • Q4 CAR 4th & 2 at the 3 late-game
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 51% p(FG) 98%

    (:25) 28-J.Stewart right guard to ARI 4 for -1 yards (92-F.Rucker; 98-C.Peters).