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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Carolina Panthers 4th & 1 at the 40

Carolina Panthers 21 – Arizona Cardinals 0

What Actually Happened

(6:14) 28-J.Stewart right tackle to ARI 36 for 4 yards (90-R.Nkemdiche; 93-C.Campbell). Chris Scott reports as an eligible reciever

The Three Options

GO +1.54 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 67% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 39, worth +3.38 EP
  • 33% chance to fail: Arizona Cardinals takes over around their own 40, worth -2.16 EP
KICK -0.59 EP
  • 51% chance to make a 57-yard field goal: 3 points, then Arizona Cardinals takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +1.59 EP
  • 49% chance to miss: Arizona Cardinals takes over around their own 49, worth -2.84 EP
PUNT -0.73 EP
  • Arizona Cardinals would take over around their own 11, worth -0.73 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model