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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Carolina Panthers 4th & 10 at the 25

Carolina Panthers 21 – Arizona Cardinals 0

What Actually Happened

(2:51) 9-G.Gano 43 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-44-J.Jansen, Holder-8-A.Lee.

The Three Options

GO +0.50 EP
  • 28% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 15, worth +4.95 EP
  • 72% chance to fail: Arizona Cardinals takes over around their own 25, worth -1.23 EP
KICK +1.20 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 84% chance to make a 42-yard field goal: 3 points, then Arizona Cardinals takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +1.77 EP
  • 16% chance to miss: Arizona Cardinals takes over around their own 35, worth -1.69 EP
PUNT -0.61 EP
  • Arizona Cardinals would take over around their own 11, worth -0.61 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model