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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Carolina Panthers 4th & 3 at the 34

Carolina Panthers 24 – Arizona Cardinals 7

What Actually Happened

(12:02) 9-G.Gano 52 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-44-J.Jansen, Holder-8-A.Lee.

The Three Options

GO +1.12 EP
Model's Pick
  • 48% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 31, worth +4.01 EP
  • 52% chance to fail: Arizona Cardinals takes over around their own 34, worth -1.56 EP
KICK +0.60 EP
What Happened
  • 66% chance to make a 51-yard field goal: 3 points, then Arizona Cardinals takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +2.08 EP
  • 34% chance to miss: Arizona Cardinals takes over around their own 44, worth -2.31 EP
PUNT -0.05 EP
  • Arizona Cardinals would take over around their own 11, worth -0.05 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.52 EP