Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Carolina Panthers 4th & 11 at the 74

Carolina Panthers 30 – Arizona Cardinals 14

What Actually Happened

(10:04) 8-A.Lee punts 60 yards to ARI 14, Center-44-J.Jansen. 21-P.Peterson pushed ob at ARI 16 for 2 yards (56-A.Klein). PENALTY on ARI-26-B.Williams, Offensive Holding, 8 yards, enforced at ARI 16.

The Three Options

GO -2.15 EP

32% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 63, worth +1.90 EP
68% chance to fail: Arizona Cardinals takes over around their own 74, worth -4.06 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (91 yards).

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model