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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Jacksonville Jaguars 4th & 15 at the 44

Jacksonville Jaguars 0 – Tennessee Titans 24

What Actually Happened

(3:25) (Punt formation) 3-B.Nortman punts 38 yards to TEN 6, Center-46-C.Tinker, downed by JAX-16-D.Robinson.

The Three Options

GO -0.65 EP
  • 24% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 29, worth +3.78 EP
  • 76% chance to fail: Tennessee Titans takes over around their own 44, worth -2.07 EP
KICK -0.71 EP
  • 42% chance to make a 61-yard field goal: 3 points, then Tennessee Titans takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +1.83 EP
  • 58% chance to miss: Tennessee Titans takes over around their own 49, worth -2.56 EP
PUNT -0.56 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Tennessee Titans would take over around their own 12, worth -0.56 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model