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JAX Away

Jacksonville Jaguars

HC Gus Bradley
@
TEN Home

Tennessee Titans

HC Mike Mularkey
Thursday 2016-10-27 · 20:25 Nissan Stadium, Nashville US ☀️ Clear Spread 3.0 O/U 43.5

Win Probability

JAX
34.2%
TEN
65.8%
☀️ Clear

Confidence: <strong>clear edge</strong> Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Key Insights

  • JAX offense: -0.105 EPA/play over its last 8 games (30th in the league)
  • Blake Bortles (JAX): -0.032 EPA/dropback in prior starts
  • JAX defense: +0.079 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (27th in the league)
  • Marcus Mariota (TEN): +0.003 EPA/dropback in prior starts

Predicted Final Score

JAX 19
–
TEN 25
Projected margin: TEN by 6 Projected total: 44

Typical error on unseen games: ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat this as a range, not a prediction to the point — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Injury Report — Week 8

JAX

Jared Odrick DE Questionable Quadricep
Julius Thomas TE Questionable Ankle

TEN

Perrish Cox CB Out Concussion
Rashad Johnson S Out Neck
Quinton Spain G Out Knee
Kevin Dodd LB Questionable Foot
Tajae Sharpe WR Questionable Knee

Pulled fresh for 2016 week 8 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.

Actual Result

JAX 22
–
TEN 36

Prediction missed by 8 pts on margin, 14 pts on total.

Scoring Summary

  • Q1 03:35 FG TEN (3:35) (Field Goal formation) 4-R.Succop 32 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-48-B.Brinkley, Holder-6-B.Kern. JAX 0 – TEN 3
  • Q2 15:00 TD TEN (15:00) 8-M.Mariota pass deep right to 13-K.Wright for 36 yards, TOUCHDOWN. JAX 0 – TEN 9
  • Q2 10:41 TD TEN (10:41) 22-D.Henry right end for 6 yards, TOUCHDOWN. JAX 0 – TEN 16
  • Q2 07:18 TD TEN (7:18) 29-D.Murray left end for 14 yards, TOUCHDOWN. JAX 0 – TEN 23
  • Q2 00:04 FG TEN (:04) (Field Goal formation) 4-R.Succop 22 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-48-B.Brinkley, Holder-6-B.Kern. JAX 0 – TEN 27
  • Q3 11:10 TD JAX (11:10) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 5-B.Bortles pass short middle to 80-J.Thomas for 10 yards, TOUCHDOWN. JAX 6 – TEN 27
  • Q3 06:58 TD TEN (6:58) (Shotgun) 8-M.Mariota pass short left to 18-R.Matthews for 4 yards, TOUCHDOWN. JAX 8 – TEN 33
  • Q4 12:37 FG TEN (12:37) (Field Goal formation) 4-R.Succop 33 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-48-B.Brinkley, Holder-6-B.Kern. JAX 8 – TEN 36
  • Q4 03:16 TD JAX (3:16) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 5-B.Bortles pass short middle to 88-A.Hurns for 5 yards, TOUCHDOWN. JAX 14 – TEN 36
  • Q4 00:05 TD JAX (:05) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 5-B.Bortles pass short middle to 81-B.Walters for 7 yards, TOUCHDOWN. JAX 21 – TEN 36

Fourth-Down Decisions

  • Q1 TEN 4th & 14 at the 58
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 29%

    (11:29) (Punt formation) 6-B.Kern punts 44 yards to JAX 14, Center-48-B.Brinkley, fair catch by 81-B.Walters.

  • Q1 JAX 4th & 14 at the 79
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 29%

    (9:17) (Punt formation) 3-B.Nortman punts 56 yards to TEN 23, Center-46-C.Tinker. 87-M.Mariani to TEN 32 for 9 yards (47-J.Wilson; 52-H.Pullard).

  • Q1 TEN 4th & 4 at the 14
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 43% p(FG) 94%

    (3:35) (Field Goal formation) 4-R.Succop 32 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-48-B.Brinkley, Holder-6-B.Kern.

  • Q1 JAX 4th & 3 at the 69
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 52%

    (2:02) (Punt formation) 3-B.Nortman punts 35 yards to TEN 34, Center-46-C.Tinker, downed by JAX-44-M.Jack.

  • Q2 JAX 4th & 6 at the 71
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 41%

    (14:07) (Punt formation) 3-B.Nortman punts 40 yards to TEN 31, Center-46-C.Tinker, fair catch by 87-M.Mariani.

  • Q2 JAX 4th & 4 at the 69
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 47%

    (9:04) (Punt formation) 3-B.Nortman punts 46 yards to TEN 23, Center-46-C.Tinker, downed by JAX-17-A.Benn. PENALTY on JAX-17-A.Benn, Interference with Opportunity to Catch, 15 yards, enforced at TEN 23.

  • Q2 JAX 4th & 15 at the 44
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 24% p(FG) 42%

    (3:25) (Punt formation) 3-B.Nortman punts 38 yards to TEN 6, Center-46-C.Tinker, downed by JAX-16-D.Robinson.

  • Q3 TEN 4th & 8 at the 78
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 40%

    (2:54) (Punt formation) 6-B.Kern punts 44 yards to JAX 34, Center-48-B.Brinkley. 11-M.Lee MUFFS catch, RECOVERED by TEN-36-L.Sims at JAX 35.

  • Q4 TEN 4th & 15 at the 15
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 24% p(FG) 94%

    (12:37) (Field Goal formation) 4-R.Succop 33 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-48-B.Brinkley, Holder-6-B.Kern.

  • Q4 JAX 4th & 4 at the 16
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 40% p(FG) 93%

    (8:07) (Shotgun) 5-B.Bortles pass incomplete short left to 88-A.Hurns.

  • Q4 TEN 4th & 2 at the 76
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.42 EP
    p(convert) 62%

    (5:29) (Punt formation) 6-B.Kern punts 34 yards to JAX 42, Center-48-B.Brinkley. 81-B.Walters to JAX 42 for no gain (31-K.Byard; 55-S.Spence).

  • Q4 TEN 4th & 5 at the 42 late-game
    Chose PUNT Model wanted KICK instead — cost +0.38 EP
    p(convert) 43% p(FG) 47%

    (2:46) (Punt formation) 6-B.Kern punts 33 yards to JAX 9, Center-48-B.Brinkley, downed by TEN.