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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Tennessee Titans 4th & 14 at the 58

Tennessee Titans 0 – Jacksonville Jaguars 0

What Actually Happened

(11:29) (Punt formation) 6-B.Kern punts 44 yards to JAX 14, Center-48-B.Brinkley, fair catch by 81-B.Walters.

The Three Options

GO -1.09 EP
  • 29% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 44, worth +3.34 EP
  • 71% chance to fail: Jacksonville Jaguars takes over around their own 58, worth -2.88 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (75 yards).

PUNT -0.30 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Jacksonville Jaguars would take over around their own 18, worth -0.30 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model