4TH&DATA
EN ES
Back to Game

Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Tennessee Titans 4th & 8 at the 78

Tennessee Titans 33 – Jacksonville Jaguars 8

What Actually Happened

(2:54) (Punt formation) 6-B.Kern punts 44 yards to JAX 34, Center-48-B.Brinkley. 11-M.Lee MUFFS catch, RECOVERED by TEN-36-L.Sims at JAX 35.

The Three Options

GO -2.11 EP
  • 40% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 70, worth +1.49 EP
  • 60% chance to fail: Jacksonville Jaguars takes over around their own 78, worth -4.48 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (95 yards).

PUNT -1.78 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Jacksonville Jaguars would take over around their own 35, worth -1.78 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model