4TH&DATA
EN ES
Back to Game

Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Tennessee Titans 4th & 15 at the 15

Tennessee Titans 33 – Jacksonville Jaguars 8

What Actually Happened

(12:37) (Field Goal formation) 4-R.Succop 33 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-48-B.Brinkley, Holder-6-B.Kern.

The Three Options

GO +1.10 EP
  • 24% chance to convert, and it's a touchdown from here: worth +6.03 EP
  • 76% chance to fail: Jacksonville Jaguars takes over around their own 15, worth -0.42 EP
KICK +1.90 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 94% chance to make a 32-yard field goal: 3 points, then Jacksonville Jaguars takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +2.09 EP
  • 6% chance to miss: Jacksonville Jaguars takes over around their own 25, worth -0.93 EP
PUNT -0.04 EP
  • Jacksonville Jaguars would take over around their own 11, worth -0.04 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model