Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Jacksonville Jaguars 4th & 14 at the 79

Jacksonville Jaguars 0 – Tennessee Titans 0

(9:17) (Punt formation) 3-B.Nortman punts 56 yards to TEN 23, Center-46-C.Tinker. 87-M.Mariani to TEN 32 for 9 yards (47-J.Wilson; 52-H.Pullard).

The Three Options

GO -3.05 EP

29% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 65, worth +1.23 EP
71% chance to fail: Tennessee Titans takes over around their own 79, worth -4.78 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (96 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model