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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Tennessee Titans 4th & 2 at the 76

Tennessee Titans 36 – Jacksonville Jaguars 8

What Actually Happened

(5:29) (Punt formation) 6-B.Kern punts 34 yards to JAX 42, Center-48-B.Brinkley. 81-B.Walters to JAX 42 for no gain (31-K.Byard; 55-S.Spence).

The Three Options

GO -1.02 EP
Model's Pick
  • 62% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 74, worth +0.92 EP
  • 38% chance to fail: Jacksonville Jaguars takes over around their own 76, worth -4.25 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (93 yards).

PUNT -1.43 EP
What Happened
  • Jacksonville Jaguars would take over around their own 34, worth -1.43 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.42 EP