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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Tennessee Titans 4th & 4 at the 14

Tennessee Titans 0 – Jacksonville Jaguars 0

What Actually Happened

(3:35) (Field Goal formation) 4-R.Succop 32 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-48-B.Brinkley, Holder-6-B.Kern.

The Three Options

GO +2.31 EP
Model's Pick
  • 43% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 10, worth +5.48 EP
  • 57% chance to fail: Jacksonville Jaguars takes over around their own 14, worth -0.07 EP
KICK +2.13 EP
What Happened
  • 94% chance to make a 31-yard field goal: 3 points, then Jacksonville Jaguars takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +2.29 EP
  • 6% chance to miss: Jacksonville Jaguars takes over around their own 24, worth -0.71 EP
PUNT +0.14 EP
  • Jacksonville Jaguars would take over around their own 11, worth +0.14 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model