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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Jacksonville Jaguars 4th & 3 at the 69

Jacksonville Jaguars 0 – Tennessee Titans 3

What Actually Happened

(2:02) (Punt formation) 3-B.Nortman punts 35 yards to TEN 34, Center-46-C.Tinker, downed by JAX-44-M.Jack.

The Three Options

GO -1.24 EP
Model's Pick
  • 52% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 66, worth +1.33 EP
  • 48% chance to fail: Tennessee Titans takes over around their own 69, worth -4.03 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (86 yards).

PUNT -1.43 EP
What Happened
  • Tennessee Titans would take over around their own 27, worth -1.43 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model