Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Tampa Bay Buccaneers 4th & 8 at the 79

Tampa Bay Buccaneers 10 – Las Vegas Raiders 0

What Actually Happened

(10:35) (Punt formation) 9-B.Anger punts 49 yards to LV 30, Center-48-A.DePaola. 30-J.Richard to LV 39 for 9 yards (52-C.Lynch). PENALTY on LV-25-D.Hayden, Offensive Holding, 10 yards, enforced at LV 39.

The Three Options

GO -1.88 EP

39% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 71, worth +1.79 EP
61% chance to fail: Las Vegas Raiders takes over around their own 79, worth -4.20 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (96 yards).

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model