4TH&DATA
EN ES
← Home
OAK Away

Oakland Raiders

HC Jack Del Rio
@
TB Home

Tampa Bay Buccaneers

HC Dirk Koetter
Sunday 2016-10-30 · 13:00 Raymond James Stadium, Tampa US 💨 Windy Spread 1.0 O/U 48.0

Win Probability

OAK
45.8%
TB
54.2%
💨 Windy

Confidence: <strong>coin flip</strong> Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Key Insights

  • Derek Carr (LV): -0.066 EPA/dropback in prior starts
  • TB offense: -0.053 EPA/play over its last 8 games (20th in the league)
  • TB defense: +0.052 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (23rd in the league)
  • LV offense: +0.020 EPA/play over its last 8 games (11th in the league)
  • LV defense: +0.066 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (26th in the league)

Predicted Final Score

OAK 22
–
TB 23
Projected margin: TB by 1 Projected total: 45

Typical error on unseen games: ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat this as a range, not a prediction to the point — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Injury Report — Week 8

OAK

Stacy McGee DT Out Ankle
Vadal Alexander G Questionable Ankle
Andre Holmes WR Questionable Hip
Taiwan Jones RB Questionable Knee
Brynden Trawick S Questionable Shoulder
Menelik Watson T Questionable Calf

TB

Doug Martin RB Out Hamstring
Clinton McDonald DT Out Hamstring
Robert Ayers DE Questionable Ankle
Joe Hawley C Questionable Ankle
Gerald McCoy DT Questionable Calf

Pulled fresh for 2016 week 8 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.

Actual Result

OAK 30
–
TB 24

Prediction missed by 7 pts on margin, 9 pts on total.

Scoring Summary

  • Q1 03:59 FG TB (3:59) (Field Goal formation) 19-R.Aguayo 41 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-48-A.DePaola, Holder-9-B.Anger. OAK 0 – TB 3
  • Q2 15:00 TD TB (15:00) 3-J.Winston pass deep right to 89-R.Shepard for 19 yards, TOUCHDOWN. OAK 0 – TB 9
  • Q2 08:19 FG LV (8:19) (Field Goal formation) 11-S.Janikowski 31 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-59-J.Condo, Holder-7-M.King. OAK 3 – TB 10
  • Q3 10:30 TD LV (10:30) 72-D.Penn reported in as eligible. 4-D.Carr pass short right to 72-D.Penn for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. OAK 9 – TB 10
  • Q3 05:38 TD LV (5:38) (Shotgun) 4-D.Carr pass deep right to 89-A.Cooper for 34 yards, TOUCHDOWN. OAK 16 – TB 10
  • Q4 15:00 TD TB (15:00) (Shotgun) 3-J.Winston pass short middle to 84-C.Brate for 5 yards, TOUCHDOWN. OAK 17 – TB 16
  • Q4 03:53 TD TB (3:53) 32-J.Rodgers left guard for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. OAK 17 – TB 22
  • Q4 01:43 TD LV (1:43) (Shotgun) 4-D.Carr pass short middle to 81-M.Rivera for 7 yards, TOUCHDOWN. OAK 23 – TB 24
  • Q5 01:55 TD LV (1:55) (Shotgun) 4-D.Carr pass short middle to 10-S.Roberts for 41 yards, TOUCHDOWN. OAK 30 – TB 24

Fourth-Down Decisions

  • Q1 TB 4th & 13 at the 66
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 30%

    (11:53) (Punt formation) 9-B.Anger punts 50 yards to LV 16, Center-48-A.DePaola, out of bounds.

  • Q1 LV 4th & 13 at the 87
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 33%

    (10:38) (Punt formation) 7-M.King punts 67 yards to TB 20, Center-59-J.Condo. 11-A.Humphries to TB 39 for 19 yards (59-J.Condo). PENALTY on TB-53-A.Glanton, Offensive Holding, 10 yards, enforced at TB 20.

  • Q1 TB 4th & 17 at the 23
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 22% p(FG) 84%

    (3:59) (Field Goal formation) 19-R.Aguayo 41 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-48-A.DePaola, Holder-9-B.Anger.

  • Q2 TB 4th & 8 at the 79
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 39%

    (10:35) (Punt formation) 9-B.Anger punts 49 yards to LV 30, Center-48-A.DePaola. 30-J.Richard to LV 39 for 9 yards (52-C.Lynch). PENALTY on LV-25-D.Hayden, Offensive Holding, 10 yards, enforced at LV 39.

  • Q2 LV 4th & 13 at the 13
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 25% p(FG) 94%

    (8:19) (Field Goal formation) 11-S.Janikowski 31 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-59-J.Condo, Holder-7-M.King.

  • Q2 TB 4th & 6 at the 42
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 39% p(FG) 38%

    (5:47) (Punt formation) 9-B.Anger punts 41 yards to LV 1, Center-48-A.DePaola, downed by TB-26-J.Robinson. PENALTY on LV-75-D.Latham, Illegal Use of Hands, 0 yards, enforced at LV 1.

  • Q2 LV 4th & 6 at the 44
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 40% p(FG) 32%

    (1:15) (Punt formation) 7-M.King punts 32 yards to TB 12, Center-59-J.Condo, downed by LV-91-S.Calhoun.

  • Q3 TB 4th & 15 at the 81
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 29%

    (9:22) (Punt formation) 9-B.Anger punts 48 yards to LV 33, Center-48-A.DePaola, out of bounds.

  • Q3 TB 4th & 12 at the 65
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 31%

    (3:21) (Punt formation) 9-B.Anger punts 55 yards to LV 10, Center-48-A.DePaola. 30-J.Richard to LV 14 for 4 yards (89-R.Shepard).

  • Q3 LV 4th & 14 at the 90
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 32%

    (1:20) (Punt formation) 7-M.King punts 42 yards to TB 48, Center-59-J.Condo, downed by LV-20-N.Allen. PENALTY on LV-57-C.James, Ineligible Downfield Kick, 5 yards, enforced at TB 48.

  • Q4 LV 4th & 13 at the 42
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.30 EP
    p(convert) 28% p(FG) 38%

    (8:41) (Punt formation) 7-M.King punts 24 yards to TB 18, Center-59-J.Condo, out of bounds.

  • Q4 TB 4th & 6 at the 71 late-game
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 42%

    (:58) (Punt formation) 9-B.Anger punts 46 yards to LV 25, Center-48-A.DePaola. 30-J.Richard pushed ob at LV 45 for 20 yards (9-B.Anger).