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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Tampa Bay Buccaneers 4th & 6 at the 42

Tampa Bay Buccaneers 10 – Las Vegas Raiders 3

What Actually Happened

(5:47) (Punt formation) 9-B.Anger punts 41 yards to LV 1, Center-48-A.DePaola, downed by TB-26-J.Robinson. PENALTY on LV-75-D.Latham, Illegal Use of Hands, 0 yards, enforced at LV 1.

The Three Options

GO +0.33 EP
Model's Pick
  • 39% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 36, worth +3.69 EP
  • 61% chance to fail: Las Vegas Raiders takes over around their own 42, worth -1.79 EP
KICK -0.66 EP
  • 38% chance to make a 59-yard field goal: 3 points, then Las Vegas Raiders takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +2.27 EP
  • 62% chance to miss: Las Vegas Raiders takes over around their own 49, worth -2.42 EP
PUNT +0.05 EP
What Happened
  • Las Vegas Raiders would take over around their own 12, worth +0.05 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model