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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Las Vegas Raiders 4th & 6 at the 44

Las Vegas Raiders 3 – Tampa Bay Buccaneers 10

What Actually Happened

(1:15) (Punt formation) 7-M.King punts 32 yards to TB 12, Center-59-J.Condo, downed by LV-91-S.Calhoun.

The Three Options

GO -0.00 EP
Model's Pick
  • 40% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 38, worth +3.07 EP
  • 60% chance to fail: Tampa Bay Buccaneers takes over around their own 44, worth -2.05 EP
KICK -0.92 EP
  • 32% chance to make a 61-yard field goal: 3 points, then Tampa Bay Buccaneers takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +2.15 EP
  • 68% chance to miss: Tampa Bay Buccaneers takes over around their own 49, worth -2.38 EP
PUNT -0.25 EP
What Happened
  • Tampa Bay Buccaneers would take over around their own 12, worth -0.25 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model