Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Tampa Bay Buccaneers 4th & 13 at the 66

Tampa Bay Buccaneers 0 – Las Vegas Raiders 0

(11:53) (Punt formation) 9-B.Anger punts 50 yards to LV 16, Center-48-A.DePaola, out of bounds.

The Three Options

GO -1.57 EP

30% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 53, worth +3.09 EP
70% chance to fail: Las Vegas Raiders takes over around their own 66, worth -3.54 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (83 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model