Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Tampa Bay Buccaneers 4th & 15 at the 81

Tampa Bay Buccaneers 10 – Las Vegas Raiders 10

(9:22) (Punt formation) 9-B.Anger punts 48 yards to LV 33, Center-48-A.DePaola, out of bounds.

The Three Options

GO -2.83 EP

29% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 66, worth +1.72 EP
71% chance to fail: Las Vegas Raiders takes over around their own 81, worth -4.72 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (98 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model