Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Las Vegas Raiders 4th & 14 at the 90

Las Vegas Raiders 17 – Tampa Bay Buccaneers 10

What Actually Happened

(1:20) (Punt formation) 7-M.King punts 42 yards to TB 48, Center-59-J.Condo, downed by LV-20-N.Allen. PENALTY on LV-57-C.James, Ineligible Downfield Kick, 5 yards, enforced at TB 48.

The Three Options

GO -3.45 EP

32% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 76, worth +0.40 EP
68% chance to fail: Tampa Bay Buccaneers takes over around their own 90, worth -5.29 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (107 yards).

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model