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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Tampa Bay Buccaneers 4th & 17 at the 23

Tampa Bay Buccaneers 0 – Las Vegas Raiders 0

What Actually Happened

(3:59) (Field Goal formation) 19-R.Aguayo 41 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-48-A.DePaola, Holder-9-B.Anger.

The Three Options

GO +1.05 EP
  • 22% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 6, worth +5.62 EP
  • 78% chance to fail: Las Vegas Raiders takes over around their own 23, worth -0.24 EP
KICK +2.07 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 84% chance to make a 40-yard field goal: 3 points, then Las Vegas Raiders takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +2.66 EP
  • 16% chance to miss: Las Vegas Raiders takes over around their own 33, worth -0.96 EP
PUNT +0.58 EP
  • Las Vegas Raiders would take over around their own 11, worth +0.58 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model