Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Denver Broncos 4th & 13 at the 83

Denver Broncos 3 – Los Angeles Chargers 7

(1:17) 9-R.Dixon punts 52 yards to LAC 31, Center-42-C.Kreiter, fair catch by 33-D.McCluster.

The Three Options

GO -2.73 EP

31% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 70, worth +1.66 EP
69% chance to fail: Los Angeles Chargers takes over around their own 83, worth -4.69 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (100 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model