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San Diego Chargers

HC Mike McCoy
@
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Denver Broncos

HC Gary Kubiak
Sunday 2016-10-30 · 16:05 Sports Authority Field at Mile High, Denver US ☀️ Clear Spread 3.5 O/U 43.0

Win Probability

SD
42.9%
DEN
57.1%
☀️ Clear

Confidence: <strong>slight edge</strong> Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Key Insights

  • DEN defense: -0.154 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (2nd in the league)
  • LAC offense: +0.024 EPA/play over its last 8 games (10th in the league)
  • DEN offense: -0.042 EPA/play over its last 8 games (18th in the league)
  • QB edge to LAC: Trevor Siemian (DEN) +0.108 vs Philip Rivers (LAC) +0.136 EPA/dropback

Predicted Final Score

SD 21
–
DEN 23
Projected margin: DEN by 2 Projected total: 44

Typical error on unseen games: ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat this as a range, not a prediction to the point — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Injury Report — Week 8

SD

Jeremiah Attaochu LB Out Ankle
Craig Mager CB Out Concussion
Jahleel Addae S Doubtful Collarbone
Hunter Henry TE Questionable Concussion
Travis Benjamin WR Questionable Knee
Denzel Perryman LB Questionable Shoulder
Tyrell Williams WR Questionable Knee

DEN

C.J. Anderson RB Out Knee
Matt Paradis C Questionable Hip
Brandon Marshall LB Questionable Hamstring
Aqib Talib CB Questionable Low Back
DeMarcus Ware LB Questionable Forearm

Pulled fresh for 2016 week 8 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.

Actual Result

SD 19
–
DEN 27

Prediction missed by 6 pts on margin, 2 pts on total.

Scoring Summary

  • Q1 11:07 FG DEN (11:07) 8-B.McManus 28 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-42-C.Kreiter, Holder-9-R.Dixon. SD 0 – DEN 3
  • Q1 07:30 TD LAC (7:30) (Shotgun) 17-P.Rivers pass short middle to 85-A.Gates for 7 yards, TOUCHDOWN. SD 6 – DEN 3
  • Q2 09:22 TD DEN (9:22) (Shotgun) 17-P.Rivers pass short middle intended for 16-Ty.Williams INTERCEPTED by 29-B.Roby at DEN 49. 29-B.Roby for 51 yards, TOUCHDOWN. Coach Wade Phillips hurt on the play. Game was delayed. SD 7 – DEN 9
  • Q3 12:50 TD DEN (12:50) 23-D.Booker left tackle for 3 yards, TOUCHDOWN. SD 7 – DEN 16
  • Q3 04:09 TD LAC (4:09) (Shotgun) 17-P.Rivers pass short left to 12-T.Benjamin for 14 yards, TOUCHDOWN [95-D.Wolfe]. SD 13 – DEN 17
  • Q4 12:38 TD DEN (12:38) 74 (Sambrailo) and 53 (Ferentz) are eligible receivers. 40-J.Thompson up the middle for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. SD 13 – DEN 23
  • Q4 08:10 TD LAC (8:10) (Shotgun) 13-T.Siemian pass short left intended for 11-J.Norwood INTERCEPTED by 26-C.Hayward at DEN 24. 26-C.Hayward for 24 yards, TOUCHDOWN. SD 19 – DEN 24
  • Q4 05:24 FG DEN (5:24) 8-B.McManus 22 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-42-C.Kreiter, Holder-9-R.Dixon. SD 19 – DEN 27

Fourth-Down Decisions

  • Q1 DEN 4th & 7 at the 10
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 32% p(FG) 96%

    (11:07) 8-B.McManus 28 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-42-C.Kreiter, Holder-9-R.Dixon.

  • Q1 DEN 4th & 2 at the 67
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 59%

    (6:06) 9-R.Dixon punts 44 yards to LAC 23, Center-42-C.Kreiter. 33-D.McCluster to LAC 27 for 4 yards (57-D.Watson).

  • Q1 LAC 4th & 4 at the 67
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 48%

    (4:28) 8-D.Kaser punts 62 yards to DEN 5, Center-47-M.Windt. 11-J.Norwood to DEN 21 for 16 yards (57-J.Brown). PENALTY on DEN-37-L.Doss, Illegal Block Above the Waist, 5 yards, enforced at DEN 10.

  • Q1 DEN 4th & 8 at the 93
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 40%

    (3:10) 9-R.Dixon punts 44 yards to LAC 49, Center-42-C.Kreiter. 33-D.McCluster to DEN 45 for 6 yards (50-Z.Anderson).

  • Q1 DEN 4th & 13 at the 83
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 31%

    (1:17) 9-R.Dixon punts 52 yards to LAC 31, Center-42-C.Kreiter, fair catch by 33-D.McCluster.

  • Q2 LAC 4th & 3 at the 51
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.58 EP
    p(convert) 50% p(FG) 24%

    (13:19) 8-D.Kaser punts 51 yards to end zone, Center-47-M.Windt, Touchback.

  • Q2 DEN 4th & 14 at the 84
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 30%

    (12:05) 9-R.Dixon punts 45 yards to LAC 39, Center-42-C.Kreiter, fair catch by 33-D.McCluster.

  • Q2 LAC 4th & 4 at the 76
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 49%

    (8:11) 8-D.Kaser punts 54 yards to DEN 22, Center-47-M.Windt. 11-J.Norwood to DEN 32 for 10 yards (84-S.McGrath). FUMBLES (84-S.McGrath), recovered by DEN-87-J.Taylor at DEN 32. 87-J.Taylor to DEN 32 for no gain (53-J.Perry).

  • Q2 LAC 4th & 10 at the 27
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 28% p(FG) 80%

    (:59) 2-J.Lambo 45 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Left, Center-47-M.Windt, Holder-10-K.Clemens.

  • Q2 DEN 4th & 6 at the 46
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 38% p(FG) 35%

    (:19) (Shotgun) 13-T.Siemian pass incomplete deep right to 10-E.Sanders.

  • Q4 LAC 4th & 18 at the 62
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 24%

    (9:51) 8-D.Kaser punts 60 yards to DEN 2, Center-47-M.Windt, downed by LAC-25-D.Stuckey.

  • Q4 DEN 4th & 4 at the 4
    Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.40 EP
    p(convert) 40% p(FG) 98%

    (5:24) 8-B.McManus 22 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-42-C.Kreiter, Holder-9-R.Dixon.

  • Q4 LAC 4th & 2 at the 2 late-game
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 51% p(FG) 98%

    (2:40) (Shotgun) 17-P.Rivers pass incomplete short left to 86-H.Henry (37-L.Doss).

  • Q4 DEN 4th & 9 at the 97 late-game
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 38%

    (2:19) 9-R.Dixon punts 68 yards to LAC 29, Center-42-C.Kreiter. 33-D.McCluster to LAC 33 for 4 yards (50-Z.Anderson, 57-D.Watson).

  • Q4 LAC 4th & 9 at the 54 late-game
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 33%

    (1:16) (Shotgun) 17-P.Rivers pass incomplete short right to 28-M.Gordon [95-D.Wolfe].