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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Los Angeles Chargers 4th & 3 at the 51

Los Angeles Chargers 7 – Denver Broncos 3

What Actually Happened

(13:19) 8-D.Kaser punts 51 yards to end zone, Center-47-M.Windt, Touchback.

The Three Options

GO -0.16 EP
Model's Pick
  • 50% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 48, worth +2.64 EP
  • 50% chance to fail: Denver Broncos takes over around their own 51, worth -2.98 EP
KICK -1.88 EP
  • 24% chance to make a 68-yard field goal: 3 points, then Denver Broncos takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +1.69 EP
  • 76% chance to miss: Denver Broncos takes over around their own 49, worth -2.98 EP
PUNT -0.74 EP
What Happened
  • Denver Broncos would take over around their own 14, worth -0.74 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.58 EP