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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Denver Broncos 4th & 14 at the 84

Denver Broncos 3 – Los Angeles Chargers 7

What Actually Happened

(12:05) 9-R.Dixon punts 45 yards to LAC 39, Center-42-C.Kreiter, fair catch by 33-D.McCluster.

The Three Options

GO -2.76 EP
  • 30% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 70, worth +1.69 EP
  • 70% chance to fail: Los Angeles Chargers takes over around their own 84, worth -4.65 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (101 yards).

PUNT -2.02 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Los Angeles Chargers would take over around their own 42, worth -2.02 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model