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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Los Angeles Chargers 4th & 4 at the 76

Los Angeles Chargers 7 – Denver Broncos 10

What Actually Happened

(8:11) 8-D.Kaser punts 54 yards to DEN 22, Center-47-M.Windt. 11-J.Norwood to DEN 32 for 10 yards (84-S.McGrath). FUMBLES (84-S.McGrath), recovered by DEN-87-J.Taylor at DEN 32. 87-J.Taylor to DEN 32 for no gain (53-J.Perry).

The Three Options

GO -1.75 EP
Model's Pick
  • 49% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 72, worth +1.17 EP
  • 51% chance to fail: Denver Broncos takes over around their own 76, worth -4.51 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (93 yards).

PUNT -1.82 EP
What Happened
  • Denver Broncos would take over around their own 34, worth -1.82 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model