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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Los Angeles Chargers 4th & 10 at the 27

Los Angeles Chargers 7 – Denver Broncos 10

What Actually Happened

(:59) 2-J.Lambo 45 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Left, Center-47-M.Windt, Holder-10-K.Clemens.

The Three Options

GO +0.63 EP
  • 28% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 17, worth +4.65 EP
  • 72% chance to fail: Denver Broncos takes over around their own 27, worth -0.95 EP
KICK +1.42 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 80% chance to make a 44-yard field goal: 3 points, then Denver Broncos takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +2.19 EP
  • 20% chance to miss: Denver Broncos takes over around their own 37, worth -1.66 EP
PUNT +0.03 EP
  • Denver Broncos would take over around their own 11, worth +0.03 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model