Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Los Angeles Chargers 4th & 9 at the 54

Los Angeles Chargers 19 – Denver Broncos 27

(1:16) (Shotgun) 17-P.Rivers pass incomplete short right to 28-M.Gordon [95-D.Wolfe].

The Three Options

GO -0.34 EP

What Happened

33% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 45, worth +1.67 EP
67% chance to fail: Denver Broncos takes over around their own 54, worth -1.32 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (71 yards).

Chose GO ✓ matched the model