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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Los Angeles Chargers 4th & 4 at the 67

Los Angeles Chargers 7 – Denver Broncos 3

What Actually Happened

(4:28) 8-D.Kaser punts 62 yards to DEN 5, Center-47-M.Windt. 11-J.Norwood to DEN 21 for 16 yards (57-J.Brown). PENALTY on DEN-37-L.Doss, Illegal Block Above the Waist, 5 yards, enforced at DEN 10.

The Three Options

GO -1.30 EP
Model's Pick
  • 48% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 63, worth +1.63 EP
  • 52% chance to fail: Denver Broncos takes over around their own 67, worth -3.94 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (84 yards).

PUNT -1.34 EP
What Happened
  • Denver Broncos would take over around their own 25, worth -1.34 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model