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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 New Orleans Saints 4th & 6 at the 35

New Orleans Saints 3 – Seattle Seahawks 14

What Actually Happened

(5:20) 3-W.Lutz 53 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-J.Drescher, Holder-6-T.Morstead.

The Three Options

GO +0.88 EP
Model's Pick
  • 40% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 29, worth +4.19 EP
  • 60% chance to fail: Seattle Seahawks takes over around their own 35, worth -1.30 EP
KICK +0.86 EP
What Happened
  • 67% chance to make a 52-yard field goal: 3 points, then Seattle Seahawks takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +2.29 EP
  • 33% chance to miss: Seattle Seahawks takes over around their own 45, worth -2.03 EP
PUNT +0.06 EP
  • Seattle Seahawks would take over around their own 11, worth +0.06 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model